When Sensitivity is a Function of Age and Time Spent in the Preclinical State in Periodic Cancer Screening
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Published
Aug 11, 2023
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Dongfeng Wu
University of Louisville
Ricolindo L. Cariño
Mississippi State University
Xiaoqin Wu
Mississippi State University
Abstract
Probability models are extended for periodic cancer screening trials to model sensitivity when it is changing with an individual’s age and time spent in the preclinical state. Wu et al. (2005) showed that sensitivity is monotone increasing with age, but intuitively, sensitivity is also a function of the time one has spent in the preclinical stage. This allows us to infer sensitivity at a late stage, just before symptoms manifest. We developed the probability model and applied Bayesian inference to the HIP study group data. The methodology we developed is also applicable to other kinds of chronic diseases.
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