A Study on Underwriting Cycle of Property Insurance Industry of China

Abstract

Methods in underwriting cycle research are compared. A second-order autoregressive model, which includes structural transition and Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF) Filter method, is used to analyze China’s underwriting cycle with annual property insurance loss ratio data from 1982 to 2008. Results show that the underwriting cycle is 11-12 years and, from the phase of underwriting cycle, management suggestions about underwriting cycle phenomenon are provided.