Comparison of Three Calculation Methods for a Bayesian Inference of Two Poisson Parameters

Abstract

The statistical inference drawn from the difference between two independent Poisson parameters is often discussed in medical literature. Kawasaki and Miyaoka (2012) proposed an index θ = P(λ_1,post < λ_2,post), where λ_1,post and λ_2,post denote Poisson parameters following posterior density. A new calculation method is proposed using MCMC and an approximate expression and exact expression for θ are compared.