Modeling Probability of Causal and Random Impacts

Abstract

The method of the estimation of the probability of an event occurring under the influence of the causal and random effects is considered. Epistemological differences from the traditional approaches to causality are discussed, and a new model of the statistical estimation of the parameters of each effect is proposed. The simple and effective algorithms of the model parameters estimation are presented, and numerical simulations are performed. A practical marketing example is analyzed. The results support the validity of the estimation procedure and open the perspective for the application of the method for various decision making problems, where different causes can yield the same outcome.